
Over the next few days, after the Kuroshio Current passes near Fukushima, Japan, it will continue to move northeastward, entering the eastern waters of Honshu at 37.4°N, 144.0°E. The maximum current speed in this area is approximately 2.1 m/s, and the current flows generally eastward, joining the extended Kuroshio Current, where the maximum current speed is approximately 13.5 m/s. The current then flows southward and merges into the North Pacific Current. Along the Fukushima coast, it will move slowly northward, largely influenced by the north-south tidal movement and the Kuroshio Current.
In the seven-day forecast simulation, the discharged tritium-containing wastewater will be influenced by the Kuroshio Current and the North Pacific Current, spreading eastward. The primary affected area is the eastern waters of Honshu, Japan, where the maximum concentration reaches 1 x 10⁻⁴ Bq/L. The secondary affected area is the eastern part of the Kuroshio Current, where the maximum concentration reaches 1 x 10⁻⁵ Bq/L. Furthermore, the 10⁻⁷ Bq/L concentration line extends eastward to approximately 154.25 degrees west longitude and southward to approximately 21.0 ˚N latitude.
Under the expected discharge conditions starting on the fourth day, the impact of the newly discharged tritium-containing treated water will primarily affect the coast of Fukushima, slowly spreading northward. The maximum concentration at a radius of 50 km from the discharge point will reach 1 x 10⁻⁴ Bq/L. Overall, based on a concentration threshold of 10⁻⁷ Bq/L, the affected area covers approximately 5568 km east of the discharge point and approximately 3357 km north-south.
The 10-7 Bq/L concentration line is 1275 km away from Taiwan Island and will have no impact on the waters surrounding Taiwan in the next 7 days.
